Most businesses that depend on dry ice don’t think much about where it comes from — until supply gets tight. Right now, that supply is under real pressure. Demand is growing faster than production can keep up, and experts are warning that a shortage could materialize as soon as 2026.
This article covers why that risk is real, which businesses are most exposed, and what practical steps you can take to reduce your dependence on a supply that may become increasingly unreliable.
Why Dry Ice Supply Is Under Pressure Right Now
Dry ice is solid CO₂. It isn’t made from scratch — it’s a byproduct of industrial processes like ammonia and ethanol production. That means when those upstream industries slow down, cut output, or face disruptions, dry ice supply drops too, even if demand stays the same.
Gas industry experts have warned that demand is outpacing production in some regions, and a dry ice shortage could emerge in 2026. The concern isn’t hypothetical. The UK government has drawn up contingency plans for food and healthcare disruption linked to reduced CO₂ supply — partly tied to conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not a distant worst-case scenario; it’s active planning happening right now.
The takeaway isn’t that the world is about to run out of dry ice. It’s that the supply chain is more fragile than most businesses realize, and periodic shortfalls — regional or sector-specific — are a realistic risk worth planning for.
Which Businesses Feel It First
Not every business is equally exposed. Some industries are deeply dependent on dry ice and have very little room to adapt quickly.
Food and Beverage
Frozen food companies, ice cream brands, and meal kit services rely on dry ice as a core part of their packaging and delivery model. When supply tightens, the impact is immediate and visible to customers.
A clear example: some Baskin Robbins outlets in Korea reportedly restricted dry ice packaging to customers within 10 to 30 minutes of travel. That’s a direct consumer-facing policy change caused entirely by a supply problem. It’s the kind of thing that damages customer trust and is hard to explain without admitting the real reason.
Pharma and Healthcare Logistics
Certain biologics, vaccines, and lab samples must be kept at temperatures as low as −70°C during transport. Dry ice is often the only practical option at that range. A supply disruption here isn’t just a logistics headache — it can mean product loss or worse.
Small Businesses vs. Large Ones
Large companies typically lock in supply contracts well in advance. Small businesses don’t have that leverage. During tight periods, small operators in some markets have reported receiving only around 70% of their usual dry ice volumes. That gap is significant when you’re already working on thin margins.
E-commerce shippers and third-party logistics providers are also at higher risk. They often have less control over sourcing and less buying power when allocations get tight.
The Demand Side Is Not Going Away
This isn’t a temporary blip caused by one bad season. The structural growth in cold chain demand is real and ongoing.
The global dry ice market was valued at roughly $1.66 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach over $3 billion by 2033–2034, growing at around 7–8% per year. That growth is driven by the same trends that accelerated during the pandemic: frozen food delivery, pharma cold chains, and e-commerce. None of those have reversed.
Asia-Pacific is a particularly fast-growing region for dry ice demand, and it comes with its own infrastructure and supply constraints that are still catching up to that growth.
For business planners, this matters because it means tight supply isn’t a one-time event to wait out. Recurring periods of constrained supply are more likely than not over the next decade. Building that assumption into your planning now is far cheaper than reacting to a shortage mid-season.
Alternatives to Dry Ice That Actually Work
The good news is that alternatives have improved significantly, and many businesses are already shifting parts of their cold chain away from dry ice.
Phase Change Materials and Gel Packs
Phase change materials, or PCMs, work by absorbing or releasing heat as they change state — similar to how ice melts. They can be engineered to hold specific temperature ranges like −20°C, 2–8°C, or −5 to +5°C, making them useful substitutes for a wide range of cold chain applications.
Gel packs serve a similar purpose and are increasingly being recommended as a practical dry ice alternative for routes that don’t require ultra-low temperatures. FreightAmigo and other logistics sources list them among the best dry ice alternatives available in 2025.
One important caveat: PCMs and gel packs cannot replicate dry ice at −70°C. They work well for a large portion of cold chain shipments, but not all of them. If you’re shipping deep-frozen biologics, dry ice remains the standard.
Vacuum Insulated Panels and Reusable Containers
Vacuum insulated panels (VIPs) significantly extend how long a container can hold its temperature without adding more cooling medium. Combined with high-performance reusable containers, they can reduce how much dry ice a shipment needs — or eliminate it entirely for shorter routes.
Treating these containers as an asset fleet rather than disposable packaging is a shift some companies are already making. You track them, maintain them, and rotate them — like vehicles. The upfront cost is real, but so is the reduction in dependence on a volatile commodity.
How to Reduce Your Exposure: Practical Steps
You don’t need to overhaul your entire operation to start managing this risk. A few practical changes can make a meaningful difference.
Segment Your Routes
Start by sorting your shipments into three categories: routes where dry ice is genuinely required (ultra-low temperatures, long transit), routes where dry ice is optional (dry ice is used out of habit, not necessity), and routes that need no dry ice at all.
Most businesses find that a meaningful portion of their shipments fall into the second and third categories. Those are the easiest places to start shifting to alternatives.
Switch from Volume Planning to Time Planning
Instead of asking “how many kilos of dry ice do we need per box,” ask “how many hours of temperature hold time do we need, and how do we minimize those hours?” Tighter pickup windows, less dwell time at distribution hubs, and better contingency rules for delays all reduce how much cooling you need per shipment.
This mindset shift is straightforward but effective. It changes dry ice from a fixed input into one variable in a larger time-management problem.
Run Pilot Tests Before Scaling
Before switching a major lane to PCMs or gel packs, run a side-by-side comparison. Send some shipments with your current setup and others with the alternative. Compare temperature logs, arrival quality, cost, and how operationally complex the switch was. Scale what works.
This approach reduces the risk of a bad switch and gives you real data to justify investment decisions internally.
Diversify Your Sourcing
If you rely on a single dry ice supplier, you’re fully exposed to their constraints. Building relationships with multiple suppliers — including regional or local producers — gives you more options when allocations tighten. Some industry guidance also suggests that manufacturers consider local, distributed dry ice production hubs as a longer-term solution.
The Bigger Picture for Business Planning
The dry ice situation is a useful reminder of how many businesses are quietly exposed to single-point supply risks they’ve never had to think about before. When a supply chain works smoothly, there’s no reason to question it. When it doesn’t, the pressure arrives fast.
For more business planning resources and analysis, Step Business Journal covers the trends and decisions that matter to operators and decision-makers across industries.
The core message here is straightforward: a dry ice shortage isn’t confirmed as a global crisis, but the risk is real enough to prepare for now. The businesses that adapt early — by segmenting routes, testing alternatives, and investing in better packaging — will be in a much stronger position than those who wait for a shortage to force their hand.
Supply pressure that builds gradually tends to hit suddenly. Getting ahead of it is almost always cheaper than reacting to it.
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